bodhi
2007-04-08 08:32:54 UTC
Taiwan, a Spark Plug for War
Doug Bandow
March 16, 2007
http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=10673
Taiwan has been an ally and friend of the U.S. for more than five
decades. But with the emergence of the People's Republic of China
(PRC) on the world stage, the so-called Republic of China (ROC) has
become a possible flashpoint for war.
If America and the PRC come to blows, it likely will be over the
status of the small island state. In a sense, Taiwan is the last
unfinished business of more than a century of foreign intervention and
civil war in China.
Beijing long was the center of East Asian civilization and culture.
Other countries paid tribute to the great Chinese empire.
But internal decay and external enemies combined to break China's
power, much as they did to undermine Rome. Although China did not
fragment in the same way, it found itself increasingly vulnerable to
foreign incursions.
Great Britain and Portugal grabbed Hong Kong and Macau, respectively.
Several Western powers and Japan created special "concessions," most
famously in Shanghai. The rising power of Japan defeated the fading
empire of China, annexing the island of Taiwan in 1895. As the 20th
century dawned, the U.S. joined other nations in suppressing the so-
called Boxer Rebellion, which targeted Western missionaries and
diplomats.
In 1911 a nationalist revolution established a fragile republic. Real
power belonged to a variety of "warlords" who held sway in their own
regions. Chiang Kai-shek eventually established a tenuous national
unity, which was destroyed by communist revolution and Japanese
invasion. Japan's defeat in 1945 led to full-scale civil war and
Chiang's ouster. In 1949 Mao Zedong proclaimed the creation of the PRC
as Chiang fled across the Taiwan Strait to Taipei.
Washington fought a bloody but unofficial war with China in Korea, and
for two decades would not even talk with Beijing. The U.S. Navy
created a barrier behind which Chiang could shelter as he
unsuccessfully plotted a return to the mainland.
However, Cold War competition with the Soviet Union prompted Richard
Nixon to fly to Beijing, playing the "China Card"; Jimmy Carter
switched formal diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC. The
U.S. maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan through an
"institute" in Taipei (Taiwan has an "office" in Washington). Over the
last quarter century the three nations have conducted a complicated
dance: the PRC claims sovereignty over Taiwan while accepting
Taiwanese autonomy; Washington recognizes that there is only one China
while providing military and political support to Taipei; the ROC
asserts a separate identity while avoiding a formal declaration of
independence.
Alas, the choreography keeps getting more complicated. Beijing has
become more impatient, demanding that Taiwan recognize its authority.
But with the one-time banned Democratic Progressive Party in power,
the ROC is emphasizing its separate identity, seeking independence in
everything but name.
Washington is stuck in the middle. It simultaneously affirms Chinese
authority over the island while implicitly guaranteeing Taipei's
autonomy. It doesn't take a genius to see how increasing Taiwanese and
Chinese assertiveness could lead to conflict - and ultimately war
between the U.S. and PRC.
One nightmare scenario: Taipei declares independence, relying on
American military support in an emergency. China responds with force,
convinced that Washington won't risk war over Taiwan. The U.S.
intervenes, believing its international credibility to be at stake.
Potential outcomes range from awful to catastrophic.
So far the three parties have avoided disaster. But a political crisis
in Taipei may be pushing Taiwan, and perhaps the U.S., closer to
crisis.
The victor in two close elections, President Chen Shui-bian has sagged
in public opinion polls, and his wife is charged with corruption.
Maneuvering has started for the next presidential contest, and his
party's strongest suit is nationalism. Although Chen originally muted
his party's traditional call for independence, he appears to be
stoking nationalist fires to bolster his party against the KMT,
Chiang's old party, which long ruled the island.
For instance, new textbooks are hitting classrooms this month. They
detail "Taiwanese" history and call Japan's half century of rule an
"administrative period" instead of an "occupation." The books downplay
the role of the 1911 revolution and its leader, Sun Yat Sen.
Such changes might seem esoteric, but they have raised the political
temperature both in Taipei and Beijing. Different words have different
implications for Taiwan's international status - renegade province or
independent country. Indeed, the textbook issue is merely part of a
larger whole. Abigail Lavin of The Weekly Standard reports that "The
DPP has undertaken an aggressive campaign to emphasize Taiwan's
national identity as distinct from the People's Republic of China in
public museums, parks, and schools."
The Taiwanese government is extending its history rewrite to the
National Palace Museum, which features items taken by Chiang's
government from the Forbidden City, or palace complex, in Beijing.
Moreover, Chen's administration plans on dismantling many of the
Chiang monuments that populate the island, including the centrally
located mausoleum and museum in Taipei. Explained President Chen:
"The government will deal with products of feudalism which don't fit
into the democratic era at all, such as the [mausoleum] and the Chiang
Kai-shek Memorial Hall, which symbolizes the party state, step by step
with a view on insisting on democracy and human rights."
Moreover, the government plans to rename Chiang Kai-shek International
Airport, and state enterprises will replace references to China with
Taiwan.
So far Chen is avoiding the dynamite issues: adopting a new
constitution, renaming the nation the Republic of Taiwan, and formally
declaring independence. But he has made his preference clear: "Taiwan
wants independence, Taiwan wants to change its name, Taiwan wants a
new constitution, Taiwan wants development." And as the upcoming
election campaign heats up, he will feel greater pressure to do
whatever is necessary to help his party win. The desire for victory
will be even greater because of the island's bitter political division
and his fear of future prosecution for corruption.
Ultimately, the resolution of the struggle between China and Taiwan
should be resolved by them, not the U.S. There's much reason for
America to be sympathetic to Taipei, a democratic and capitalist
friend that has created a national model for China to follow. However,
there may be no more important bilateral relationship this century
than that between Washington and the PRC.
Confrontation between the two would have unpredictable ramifications
for years and decades in the future. War would be catastrophic.
Although Beijing remains far behind the U.S. militarily, it is a
nuclear power. Conflict with China would be quite different than with
Grenada, Panama, Serbia, or Iraq. In the worst case, America could end
up sacrificing Los Angeles to protect Taipei, a bad bargain by any
measure for the U.S.
Even the Bush administration is aware of the risks, and has been
pressing the Chen administration to avoid provoking Beijing. But
Taiwan might find the implicit threat to stand aside in a crisis
sparked by Taipei no more credible than the PRC finds Washington's
threat to intervene in a crisis initiated by Beijing.
After all, Washington has put its reputation on the line. In 2001
President George W. Bush essentially promised that America would
defend Taiwan if necessary. The U.S. government has routinely provided
implicit security guarantees to Taipei and warned the PRC away from
aggressive action. To cite juridical niceties as an excuse for
inaction in the event of Chinese threats or attacks on Taiwan would
wreck American credibility. President Chen knows this and is counting
on it as he ratchets up cross-strait pressures.
The U.S. needs to extricate itself from what may be the most explosive
situation in East Asia, even more dangerous than the Korean peninsula.
The time to do so is before a crisis breaks.
Washington must expressly step back from any military commitment to
Taipei. America should maintain a strong relationship with Taiwan,
supporting its independent identity in international forums. The U.S.
also should sell Taiwan whatever weapons it desires to purchase for
its own defense. But Washington must make clear that it does not plan
to inaugurate war to keep Taipei independent.
Even so, American officials should make clear to China the high price
that it would pay if it attempted to coerce Taiwan. Beijing is deeply
embedded in the international economic system; China's investment and
trade ties would inevitably suffer.
Equally important, the PRC's desire to play an increasing regional and
global leadership role would take a huge hit. Fear would supplant
respect, and its neighbors, most especially Japan, would emphasize
deterrence of rather than cooperation with China. Beijing must
understand that it is likely to be more successful over the long term
by accepting a separate Taiwan than by attempting to force a reunion.
Time may be short. Washington must have an honest talk with Taipei.
Taiwan's future is its own, to be decided by the Taiwanese people. But
they should not count on America to risk all in their defense. The
U.S. must clearly state that it does not intend to back Taiwan's
independence aspirations with the American military.
For too long Washington has acted as if intervention and war were
essentially costless. Sept. 11 and the Iraq conflict have exploded the
myth that the U.S. can do whatever it pleases without consequence. War
with China would visit even greater horror upon America, and do so in
a conflict involving no vital U.S. interests. It would be foolish,
even reckless, in the extreme.
Washington should begin erecting firebreaks to war, starting with
Taiwan.
----------------
namaste;
bodhi
http://psychedelictourist.blogspot.com
Doug Bandow
March 16, 2007
http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=10673
Taiwan has been an ally and friend of the U.S. for more than five
decades. But with the emergence of the People's Republic of China
(PRC) on the world stage, the so-called Republic of China (ROC) has
become a possible flashpoint for war.
If America and the PRC come to blows, it likely will be over the
status of the small island state. In a sense, Taiwan is the last
unfinished business of more than a century of foreign intervention and
civil war in China.
Beijing long was the center of East Asian civilization and culture.
Other countries paid tribute to the great Chinese empire.
But internal decay and external enemies combined to break China's
power, much as they did to undermine Rome. Although China did not
fragment in the same way, it found itself increasingly vulnerable to
foreign incursions.
Great Britain and Portugal grabbed Hong Kong and Macau, respectively.
Several Western powers and Japan created special "concessions," most
famously in Shanghai. The rising power of Japan defeated the fading
empire of China, annexing the island of Taiwan in 1895. As the 20th
century dawned, the U.S. joined other nations in suppressing the so-
called Boxer Rebellion, which targeted Western missionaries and
diplomats.
In 1911 a nationalist revolution established a fragile republic. Real
power belonged to a variety of "warlords" who held sway in their own
regions. Chiang Kai-shek eventually established a tenuous national
unity, which was destroyed by communist revolution and Japanese
invasion. Japan's defeat in 1945 led to full-scale civil war and
Chiang's ouster. In 1949 Mao Zedong proclaimed the creation of the PRC
as Chiang fled across the Taiwan Strait to Taipei.
Washington fought a bloody but unofficial war with China in Korea, and
for two decades would not even talk with Beijing. The U.S. Navy
created a barrier behind which Chiang could shelter as he
unsuccessfully plotted a return to the mainland.
However, Cold War competition with the Soviet Union prompted Richard
Nixon to fly to Beijing, playing the "China Card"; Jimmy Carter
switched formal diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC. The
U.S. maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan through an
"institute" in Taipei (Taiwan has an "office" in Washington). Over the
last quarter century the three nations have conducted a complicated
dance: the PRC claims sovereignty over Taiwan while accepting
Taiwanese autonomy; Washington recognizes that there is only one China
while providing military and political support to Taipei; the ROC
asserts a separate identity while avoiding a formal declaration of
independence.
Alas, the choreography keeps getting more complicated. Beijing has
become more impatient, demanding that Taiwan recognize its authority.
But with the one-time banned Democratic Progressive Party in power,
the ROC is emphasizing its separate identity, seeking independence in
everything but name.
Washington is stuck in the middle. It simultaneously affirms Chinese
authority over the island while implicitly guaranteeing Taipei's
autonomy. It doesn't take a genius to see how increasing Taiwanese and
Chinese assertiveness could lead to conflict - and ultimately war
between the U.S. and PRC.
One nightmare scenario: Taipei declares independence, relying on
American military support in an emergency. China responds with force,
convinced that Washington won't risk war over Taiwan. The U.S.
intervenes, believing its international credibility to be at stake.
Potential outcomes range from awful to catastrophic.
So far the three parties have avoided disaster. But a political crisis
in Taipei may be pushing Taiwan, and perhaps the U.S., closer to
crisis.
The victor in two close elections, President Chen Shui-bian has sagged
in public opinion polls, and his wife is charged with corruption.
Maneuvering has started for the next presidential contest, and his
party's strongest suit is nationalism. Although Chen originally muted
his party's traditional call for independence, he appears to be
stoking nationalist fires to bolster his party against the KMT,
Chiang's old party, which long ruled the island.
For instance, new textbooks are hitting classrooms this month. They
detail "Taiwanese" history and call Japan's half century of rule an
"administrative period" instead of an "occupation." The books downplay
the role of the 1911 revolution and its leader, Sun Yat Sen.
Such changes might seem esoteric, but they have raised the political
temperature both in Taipei and Beijing. Different words have different
implications for Taiwan's international status - renegade province or
independent country. Indeed, the textbook issue is merely part of a
larger whole. Abigail Lavin of The Weekly Standard reports that "The
DPP has undertaken an aggressive campaign to emphasize Taiwan's
national identity as distinct from the People's Republic of China in
public museums, parks, and schools."
The Taiwanese government is extending its history rewrite to the
National Palace Museum, which features items taken by Chiang's
government from the Forbidden City, or palace complex, in Beijing.
Moreover, Chen's administration plans on dismantling many of the
Chiang monuments that populate the island, including the centrally
located mausoleum and museum in Taipei. Explained President Chen:
"The government will deal with products of feudalism which don't fit
into the democratic era at all, such as the [mausoleum] and the Chiang
Kai-shek Memorial Hall, which symbolizes the party state, step by step
with a view on insisting on democracy and human rights."
Moreover, the government plans to rename Chiang Kai-shek International
Airport, and state enterprises will replace references to China with
Taiwan.
So far Chen is avoiding the dynamite issues: adopting a new
constitution, renaming the nation the Republic of Taiwan, and formally
declaring independence. But he has made his preference clear: "Taiwan
wants independence, Taiwan wants to change its name, Taiwan wants a
new constitution, Taiwan wants development." And as the upcoming
election campaign heats up, he will feel greater pressure to do
whatever is necessary to help his party win. The desire for victory
will be even greater because of the island's bitter political division
and his fear of future prosecution for corruption.
Ultimately, the resolution of the struggle between China and Taiwan
should be resolved by them, not the U.S. There's much reason for
America to be sympathetic to Taipei, a democratic and capitalist
friend that has created a national model for China to follow. However,
there may be no more important bilateral relationship this century
than that between Washington and the PRC.
Confrontation between the two would have unpredictable ramifications
for years and decades in the future. War would be catastrophic.
Although Beijing remains far behind the U.S. militarily, it is a
nuclear power. Conflict with China would be quite different than with
Grenada, Panama, Serbia, or Iraq. In the worst case, America could end
up sacrificing Los Angeles to protect Taipei, a bad bargain by any
measure for the U.S.
Even the Bush administration is aware of the risks, and has been
pressing the Chen administration to avoid provoking Beijing. But
Taiwan might find the implicit threat to stand aside in a crisis
sparked by Taipei no more credible than the PRC finds Washington's
threat to intervene in a crisis initiated by Beijing.
After all, Washington has put its reputation on the line. In 2001
President George W. Bush essentially promised that America would
defend Taiwan if necessary. The U.S. government has routinely provided
implicit security guarantees to Taipei and warned the PRC away from
aggressive action. To cite juridical niceties as an excuse for
inaction in the event of Chinese threats or attacks on Taiwan would
wreck American credibility. President Chen knows this and is counting
on it as he ratchets up cross-strait pressures.
The U.S. needs to extricate itself from what may be the most explosive
situation in East Asia, even more dangerous than the Korean peninsula.
The time to do so is before a crisis breaks.
Washington must expressly step back from any military commitment to
Taipei. America should maintain a strong relationship with Taiwan,
supporting its independent identity in international forums. The U.S.
also should sell Taiwan whatever weapons it desires to purchase for
its own defense. But Washington must make clear that it does not plan
to inaugurate war to keep Taipei independent.
Even so, American officials should make clear to China the high price
that it would pay if it attempted to coerce Taiwan. Beijing is deeply
embedded in the international economic system; China's investment and
trade ties would inevitably suffer.
Equally important, the PRC's desire to play an increasing regional and
global leadership role would take a huge hit. Fear would supplant
respect, and its neighbors, most especially Japan, would emphasize
deterrence of rather than cooperation with China. Beijing must
understand that it is likely to be more successful over the long term
by accepting a separate Taiwan than by attempting to force a reunion.
Time may be short. Washington must have an honest talk with Taipei.
Taiwan's future is its own, to be decided by the Taiwanese people. But
they should not count on America to risk all in their defense. The
U.S. must clearly state that it does not intend to back Taiwan's
independence aspirations with the American military.
For too long Washington has acted as if intervention and war were
essentially costless. Sept. 11 and the Iraq conflict have exploded the
myth that the U.S. can do whatever it pleases without consequence. War
with China would visit even greater horror upon America, and do so in
a conflict involving no vital U.S. interests. It would be foolish,
even reckless, in the extreme.
Washington should begin erecting firebreaks to war, starting with
Taiwan.
----------------
namaste;
bodhi
http://psychedelictourist.blogspot.com